Contributing Author Dickson Igwe
A series of perspectives on the November 2012 US Presidential Election and its effects on West Indian society
US Vice President, Joe ‘SIXPACK’ Biden’s feisty debate with Vice Presidential Contender Congressman Paul Ryan on the evening of October 11, 2012, may have just saved the US President, Barack Obama’s, political fortunes. At the very least, it should have re energized the Democratic Party Base after the President’s very poor performance in the first Presidential Debate of the November 2012, US Presidential Election Contest. On the Republican side, Congressman Ryan buttressed his credentials as a future US President, however whether this man is a new RONALD REAGAN is still to be determined.
And if a day is a long time in politics, the remaining days before a historic US Presidential Election is an eternity. And after that dismal debate performance by the Leader of the Free World, Mitt Romney has the wind at his sails, taking the wealthy contender in the right direction on the electoral map.
The Republican Challenger has reversed his declining poll numbers in crucial swing states, and among key demographics and constituencies, such as independents and women; that is certainly bad news for President Barack Obama. Michelle Obama must have shouted at her powerful husband after his dismal performance: ‘’ what were you thinking Barack: how could you have thrown away all the gains of the past weeks in one evening!’’
Apparently, the Democrats are currently and rightly in a panic. However, this Election still appears to be Obama’s to win. The President’s constituency of solid minority support, especially with Blacks, Latinos, and liberal Democrats, and his now only marginal lead among women may still save him: he needs these crucial votes in key swing states such as Florida and Ohio.
Now, a well used cliché among diplomats and intelligence personnel around the world is this one: ‘’ nations do not have friends, just cold hard interests.’’ West Indians should adopt that stance in their view of the upcoming General Election in the United States this November, 2012. The upcoming US election will influence the economy of the region, and the crucial relationship with the large superpower neighbour in the North. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are rightly concerned about the US economic interest first and foremost, and so should West Indians about theirs.
The Virgin Islander and West Indian should put emotion aside that says that the first coloured president in history is a profound experience for everyone living this 2012, a great thing indeed. But that does not put bread on the Islander’s table, and a roof over his head, so to speak. Yes, taking off the pink coloured spectacles and facing harsh reality, seldom disappoints. No one can avoid US politics; what takes place in the USA affects one and all in these West Indies: Caribbean US citizens, green card holders, and Caribbean nationals and residents.
A story by Jason Smith in the British Virgin Islands Beacon Newspaper of July 5, 2012, highlighted a warning that, ‘’ a dull sounding American tax law may soon have big implications for Virgin Islands residents and the territory’s financial services industry.’’ According to the country’s leader, Dr. the Honorable Orlando Smith OBE, ‘’ if the USA FOREIGN ACCOUNT TAX COMPLIANCE ACT, which became law in 2010, is enacted as scheduled by 2013, it could significantly affect our business practices here.’’
Apparently, according to the article, ‘’ under US tax law, most American citizens and Green Card holders are required to pay taxes on their global income regardless of where they live. FATCA will expose Virgin Islanders with US Citizenship and residency to the possibility of increased reporting obligations to American tax authorities with severe penalties for non compliance.’’ Ouch! There are quite a few citizens of these Antilles who are in that group!
It is accepted that Barack’s administration has not been offshore banking and financial services friendly: and this may be understandable considering the huge debt burden of over 16 trillion dollars the US nation faces, equal to her annual Gross Domestic Product; hence the need to fight against tax loopholes, and any measure that may be to the advantage of international investors taking money out of the USA, and those who move cash around the globe in large amounts.
But isn’t globalization the new Modus Vivendi Mr. President? The world economy is driven by capital flows across international boundaries. And do bear in mind that the offshore financial industry is critical to the Caribbean and her well being.
In any case, crushing public debt is one aftertaste of the 2007 Recession. This is a result of a culture of financial mismanagement, reckless consumption, and thoughtless credit initially driven by the US and British banking establishments. An imprudent modus Vivendi coupled with a number of expensive wars fought in the Middle East and Asia; add to that the fact that the USA remains the world’s policeman, very expensive obligations indeed.
In a related vein, and a very interesting story of July 19, 2012, appeared in the online magazine, CARIBDIRECT, penned by the distinguished diplomat, Sir Ronald Sanders. The article was headed, ‘’ MAKING THE JUDGMENT ON OBAMA.’’ Sanders made the following assertion in that narrative: ‘’ in times of economic stagnation, it is the people at the bottom of the economic ladder that suffer the most, blacks and Hispanics, Obama’s natural base.’’ Consequently come November 2012, ‘’ they may be inclined to feel let down and either not vote for him, or abstain from the vote altogether.
Sanders determined that, ‘’ President Obama’s policies have not helped the Caribbean, indeed they have been positively harmful in the financial services sector, in climate change, and in a lack of responsiveness to Caribbean Development needs.’’ In fact, ‘’ there may be some easing in financial services if Romney wins as there was when the Republican George W Bush took over from the Democratic Administration of Bill Clinton.’’
The Caribbean Diplomat reminded in his narrative that Bill Clinton, considered the first black president by many, had a Treasury Secretary named Lawrence Summers who was a hawk, and Summers, ‘’ pummeled Caribbean financial services in the 1990s. It was the advent of the Bush Administration and a new Treasury Secretary, Paul O’Neil, that moderated the US Government stance until 911, when the famous Patriot Act, with its extra territorial reach, set back financial services again.’’
President Obama in deep thought. Photo courtesy telegraph.co.uk
With regard to the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, FATCA, vigorously supported by the Obama Administration, Sanders quoted another Contributor and Columnist, David Jessop, who stated that, ‘’ apart from the measure extending US law to the Caribbean and other parts of the world, it also has a compliance cost to Caribbean financial institutions, that will likely impact on government revenues.’’ Jessop further asserted that FATCA would, ‘’ change the offshore financial services environment in the region and impose on institutions the reputational risk for failure to comply with US requests.’’
But there is more. Sanders highlighted that with regard to the RIO plus 20 Conference of June, 2012, ‘’ the US refused to affirm an earlier commitment to transfer technology to developing countries. It equally refused to reaffirm any commitment to providing new and additional financial resources: both financial services and global warming are vitally important matters, integral to Caribbean survival,’’
The US stance has not been a good one. Instead, the Obama Administration has, ‘’ focused primarily on fighting drug trafficking and refugees from the Caribbean.’’
Barack Obama has rustled up enormous foreign policy credentials, both with US Citizens and in the international community. He is seen as a foreign policy hawk. A cold warrior who will do whatever it takes to go after America’s enemies. However, elections are generally decided on the economy and pocket book issues, not on killing a murderous and notorious terrorist. On that count, Obama is not doing enough, and US Citizens give him low marks on the economy. If the US economy is the determining factor in November, then the US President is in trouble.
To be continued
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