Lord Ashcroft
Saturday, 28 April, 2012 in Conservative Party, Ethnic minority voters, Publications
By Lord Ashcroft
At the 2010 election, only 16% of ethnic minority voters supported the Conservatives. More than two thirds voted Labour. Not being white was the single best predictor that somebody would not vote Conservative.
The gulf between the Conservative Party and ethnic minority voters is a well-known feature of British politics. I decided to explore the problem in more detail. The results of the research – which involved a 10,000-sample poll and 20 discussion groups with voters from black African, black Caribbean, Muslim, Hindu and Sikh backgrounds – are detailed in my latest report, Degrees of Separation: Ethnic minority voters and the Conservative Party.
Some argue that the Conservatives’ efforts to reach minority votes have so far been fruitless, and should therefore cease. I disagree, for two reasons. First, in narrow political terms, to narrow the deficit among these voters is in the party’s electoral interests. The average non-white population of the constituencies the Tories gained from Labour in 2010 was 6 per cent. In the twenty of Labour’s one hundred most vulnerable marginals that the Tories failed to win, the average non-white population was 15 per cent. In the five of those that were in London, it was 28 per cent. The Conservative Party’s problem with ethnic minority voters is costing it seats.
Secondly, it is just not right that in contemporary Britain a large part of the population should feel that a mainstream party of government – which aspires to represent every part of society and govern in the whole country’s interest – has nothing to say to them.
Methodology
A poll of 10,268 adults was conducted between 24 October and 4 December 2011. All interviewees lived in the areas with the highest concentrations of black and minority ethnic residents according to census data. Of the total sample, 3,201 were from a black or Asian background.
20 focus groups were conducted between 31 January and 1 March 2012, in London, Bristol, Manchester, Leeds, Bradford and Birmingham. Separate groups were conducted of voters from black African, black Caribbean, Muslim, Hindu and Sikh backgrounds.
