Dickson Igwe, Senior political contributor
The sprint to the finish line: The USA Presidential race is unpredictable
The most critical election in the world in 2020 remains very much an unpredictable affair.
Yes, Vice President Joe Biden has been leading since February 2020, from the beginning of the Covid 19 Pandemic in the West.
However, post the presidential conventions in late August, the momentum appears to be with President Donald Trump in key swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, that decide US elections in the Electoral College.
As of September 4 2020 Biden is ahead 7 points in the poll averages. That is a lead that Donald Trump is eating into.
And the math is very simple. Republicans have traditionally had the advantage in the Electoral College that favors white rural areas that host Donald Trump’s most fervent supporters.
In order for a Democrat to win the Electoral College he or she needs to be ahead by between 7-10 points nationally. That margin means that key demographics in Republican areas are trending Democrat.
Any drop below 7 points begins to see the Republicans make major gains in swing states: Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but she lost the Electoral College.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Photo courtesy KOMO
Donald Trump’s white blue collar base is 90% rock solid behind their man.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, Latinas and blacks appear lukewarm towards Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
Paradoxically for a Democrat, Biden is ahead with surburban whites, educated whites, and women of all colors. Independents and third party voters are also moving into the Joe Biden camp.
Consequently the route to a second term for Donald Trump is simply maintaining the momentum in the swing states that matter especially, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
If Joe Biden’s numbers drop below 7 points in the coming weeks he is in trouble.
However if in the coming weeks Biden moves his numbers from 7-10 points ahead of where Trump is in the polls, then Biden’s road to the White House is clear and wide.
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