The Report of the Virgin Islands Commission of Inquiry is what stands between normal and abnormal. Consequently, there is no certainty with today’s governance. The ‘tea leaves’ are impossible to read presently. And there can be no clear path into the future, until the COI report is published.
The one matter the Virgin Islands Premier has made clear is that there will be no General Election before the Virgin Islands Commission of Inquiry Report.
That means elections sometime in 2023. Then there is a caveat. The holding of a General election is determined by what the COI report states, and the actions of the Governor as the Queen’s Representative in deciding how to respond to the report’s findings. The Governor remains the Constitutional Head of State in the British Virgin Islands.
Albeit the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and local Governors traditionally, have always been wary of interfering with the local politics of Overseas Territories of Great Britain.
The preceding are the factors that will determine the shape of the next Virgin Islands Government.
Is there a storm brewing? No one can tell. Will the UK step in and suspend the constitution owing to findings of the Commission of Inquiry? Will there be prosecutions of high officials?
Someone informed this Old boy that UK intervention was unlikely because there has been no ‘’smoking gun.’’ However, even that is a subjective assertion. No one knows the content of the COI report, and its repercussions for the British Virgin Islands.
There are various scenarios, from UK intervention of the most direct type owing to COI findings that are indeed serious, to a closing of the file and normality as nothing truly illegal is discovered.
One thing is probable: the next few months will be volatile and unpredictable for Virgin Islands politics.
How will the COI report impact election results if elections are held?
Will the COI Report implicate any officials? And if these are elected officials, will they be eligible to run for office?
And if the UK does step in – the TCI Model- how will the Territory be managed until a return to self-governance?
These are the questions we all have as we contemplate the future of these islands in paradise.
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