Dickson Igwe, Senior political contributor
Brexit has entered an expected phase. The UK is becoming balkanized.
The Brexit Civil War has generated divisions in the United Kingdom that cannot be bridged unless the two sides talk and settle.
and it will be unwise for any ”expert” to predict the trajectory and final outcome of the Brexit war at this stage in the conundrum.
Boris Johnson- a blustering and bullying type personality in the manner of Donald trump- has been effectively checkmated by UK law makers and the legal establishment.
It is highly unlikely he gets the two things he believes will save his leadership of the UK: a Brexit deal or a No Deal Brexit. Albeit the latest news is that Johnson may U turn and allow Northern Ireland to remain in the European Union with a customs border between Northern Ireland and the UK.
On the other side of the battlefield: Remainers led by senior Conservative and Labour leaders, Liberal Democrat Joe Cox, and Speaker of the House John Bercow, are determined to thwart the Far-Right Conservative party at every move. And they are succeeding with the aid of ”powerful silent partners.”
The UK is highly unlikely to leave the European Union on October 31. Another fact is that European Leaders want to be rid of this whole Brexit mess. However, Europeans do not want to be seen as the side that pulls the trigger that leads to the UK’s departure from Europe.
Europeans prefer that the UK pulls the trigger itself that signals a breakaway from the European Union.
UK Citizens – if the latest polls are to be believed – are now firmly against Brexit.
Speaker of the House John Bercow. Photo courtesy https://www.bbc.co.uk/
There has been a ”great awakening” that UK voters and the general public have been ”conned” by Brexiteers, led by a ”bunch of irresponsible, wealthy, and Old School Tie nationalists and fanatics:” Snake Oil Salesmen, with posh accents.
A UK General Election predicated on Brexit is expected before Christmas. But even this must be taken with the ”proverbial grain of salt.” In war anything is possible.
The UK – before October 31- may opt for a Caretaker Government led by an elder statesman like Sir Kenneth Clark, until the Brexit matter is resolved.
This will most logically end with a SECOND REFERENDUM that asks for a national response on an insoluble matter, by hopefully asking the right questions. Unlike the FIRST REFERENDUM that has landed Britain in the present swamp.
The view from Europe must be daunting. The UK: the worlds most respected Parliamentary Democracy appears to be disintegrating. Europe’s leaders continue to state that Britain is free to leave whenever it wants to. So, why can’t the Brits decide to simply depart?
Because half of Britain understands that in today’s world of power politics – with a Donald Trump who cannot be trusted, a predatory and swiftly growing China, and a Russia and India that are becoming huge economic and military behemoths – that a Europe of 500 middle class consumers with huge political, economic, and social clout, is the only check on these encircling powers: ” The European Union is the only game in town for the UK.”
Brexiteers however remain deluded. There is a yearning for a yesteryear, when the British Empire ruled the Seven Seas. Post Brexit, the Britain that ruled the world will make a resurgence. This is the Brexiteer dream.
The belief is that if the UK breaks from the EU that ”ditto” the world of the 1940s and 50s where, Britannia ruled much of the world, will make a re-appearance.
That is not going to happen.
